Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia

Understanding the climatically suitable habitat of species plays a vital role in sustainable use and management target species. Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., native shrub found desert areas Central Asia, is generally considered as one top four tree for desertification control. However, previous works on simulation had focused mainly either national or specific geographical scales rather than entire biota scales, which have underestimated climatic tolerance Furthermore, uncertainty outcomes climate change were largely ignored. With these questions, arid regions Asia selected our research background area. Occurrence data C. obtained from various sources, such Global Biodiversity Information Facility, Chinese Virtual Herbarium, iPlant website. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate dynamics under scenarios [5 general circulation models (GCMs) × 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)]. induced by GCMs SSPs decomposed two-way ANOVA method. Our results show that hydrological-related variables are more important species’ suitability thermal-related variables. threshold core 1–30 mm precipitation coldest quarter, 14–401 annual precipitation, −16.01–12.42 °C mean temperature driest 9.48–32.63 wettest −25.01–−9.77 minimum month. size about 287.4 104 km2 current condition, located China Mongolia. Climate has less impact total area size, but it bigger impacts gain loss sizes. southeast boundaries, whereas Mongolia Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. decomposition indicates could explain 14.5%, 66.4%, 97.0% variation, respectively, 85.5%, 33.6%, 3.0% variation gain, loss, sizes, respectively. work clearly demonstrates while great planting potential scenarios, sensitive possess large uncertainties requiring long-term monitoring afforestation projects.